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tommo11
Team Manager



Indonesia
2127 Posts
joined 12 Dec 09

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Posted - 30 Apr 2020 :  11:47:56  Show Profile  Visit tommo11's Homepage Send tommo11 a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by Bloopy


In nerdspeak, apparently degrees of separation increases logarithmically with population size. So if Australia had an equally strict lockdown adhered to equally promptly, you might expect their cases per capita to be half of NZ's. But I guess it gets complicated if the stats include cases caught overseas, infected NZers travel via Australia to get home and so on.


This is just my opinion, but I doubt the level of lockdown had been the cause of any difference in case numbers between Aus and NZ. The simple fact is that if Peter Dutton/Border Force/NSW Health didn't let the cruise ship of doom disembark freely, our case numbers would be substantially lower. This ship has caused outbreaks in places as remote as North West Tasmania.

That said, both countries have been extremely successful (after a very poor start in Australia) despite these slight differences in lockdown.

2019 Fantasy League Overall Champion

Edited by - tommo11 on 30 Apr 2020 12:01:32
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djr18fan
Team Manager



New Zealand
1885 Posts
joined 06 Jul 06

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Posted - 30 Apr 2020 :  14:13:35  Show Profile Send djr18fan a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by Bloopy

quote:
Originally posted by tommo11

Interesting that Australia seems to be doing just as well as NZ despite a much larger population, more international arrivals and a less stringent lockdown.

The per capita stats were always going to look worse for smaller countries. Just because we have 20% of Australia's population, doesn't mean any one infected person here only had 20% as many social contacts. Same reason why Iceland has so many cases per million and Belgium's death stats look particularly terrible.

In nerdspeak, apparently degrees of separation increases logarithmically with population size. So if Australia had an equally strict lockdown adhered to equally promptly, you might expect their cases per capita to be half of NZ's. But I guess it gets complicated if the stats include cases caught overseas, infected NZers travel via Australia to get home and so on.



Surprisingly, the majority of cases in NZ originated from the states. During March.

_Mford
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Legendary Gerry
Moderator



Australia
22656 Posts
joined 19 Feb 07

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Posted - 30 Apr 2020 :  15:03:42  Show Profile Send Legendary Gerry a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by djr18fan

quote:
Originally posted by Bloopy

quote:
Originally posted by tommo11

Interesting that Australia seems to be doing just as well as NZ despite a much larger population, more international arrivals and a less stringent lockdown.

The per capita stats were always going to look worse for smaller countries. Just because we have 20% of Australia's population, doesn't mean any one infected person here only had 20% as many social contacts. Same reason why Iceland has so many cases per million and Belgium's death stats look particularly terrible.

In nerdspeak, apparently degrees of separation increases logarithmically with population size. So if Australia had an equally strict lockdown adhered to equally promptly, you might expect their cases per capita to be half of NZ's. But I guess it gets complicated if the stats include cases caught overseas, infected NZers travel via Australia to get home and so on.



Surprisingly, the majority of cases in NZ originated from the states. During March.



The exact same place most of Australia's came from...
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Wrighty05
Last of the Big Bangers



Tonga
7424 Posts
joined 25 Aug 03

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Posted - 01 May 2020 :  23:53:40  Show Profile  Click to see Wrighty05's MSN Messenger address Send Wrighty05 a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
Bit over home schooling my treasures I can tell you that!

RIP05

_Mholden

RIP LJ - loved and never forgotten.

"It was dry for the second go-around. Grice, nervous, worrying about his Bathurst jinx, ran 2:25.9. The amazing Brock, using every last centimetre of bitumen, yet keeping the car straight and balanced and at full noise, came back with a staggering 2:20.0 as if to say: "Match that". And people just shook their heads, bit their lips and wondered who would be second".

The Peter Brock trophy is now where it belongs.
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CP
Safety Car Pilot



Australia
11429 Posts
joined 22 Jan 09

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Posted - 02 May 2020 :  11:08:13  Show Profile  Visit CP's Homepage Send CP a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
Has anyone downloaded the app?

I've read the FAQs and it it says that it registers after 15 minutes of being near a confirmed case that also has the app. Wouldn't that only work if you're heading down the street?
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Legendary Gerry
Moderator



Australia
22656 Posts
joined 19 Feb 07

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Posted - 02 May 2020 :  11:13:34  Show Profile Send Legendary Gerry a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
I haven't downloaded it because it would be a waste of time for me.
I've been self isolating for weeks now and simply don't go anywhere, let alone near people except my wife.
Unless you can catch it from horses, cattle and dogs of course...
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Sonic
Moderator



Australia
17442 Posts
joined 14 Nov 06

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Posted - 02 May 2020 :  23:13:20  Show Profile Send Sonic a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by Legendary Gerry

I haven't downloaded it because it would be a waste of time for me.
I've been self isolating for weeks now and simply don't go anywhere, let alone near people except my wife.
Unless you can catch it from horses, cattle and dogs of course...



have the horses, cattle and dogs been eating bats?

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Trev
Team Manager



Australia
5981 Posts
joined 13 Feb 03

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Posted - 03 May 2020 :  05:12:43  Show Profile  Visit Trev's Homepage Send Trev a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by CP

Has anyone downloaded the app?

I've read the FAQs and it it says that it registers after 15 minutes of being near a confirmed case that also has the app. Wouldn't that only work if you're heading down the street?



Like LG I have been locked down since March 18, but I have to go out into the public tomorrow and for a few days over the next few weeks, so VERY reluctantly I have downloaded the app - I ****ing hated doing it, but I felt it was important as my wife is on immune suppressants

I reserve the right to arm bears
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Legendary Gerry
Moderator



Australia
22656 Posts
joined 19 Feb 07

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Posted - 03 May 2020 :  08:31:38  Show Profile Send Legendary Gerry a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by Sonic

quote:
Originally posted by Legendary Gerry

I haven't downloaded it because it would be a waste of time for me.
I've been self isolating for weeks now and simply don't go anywhere, let alone near people except my wife.
Unless you can catch it from horses, cattle and dogs of course...



have the horses, cattle and dogs been eating bats?



They're all spoilt.
They wouldn't even consider it.
Thinking about it, I haven't even seen any bats out here.
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ignition
Terminator


2485 Posts
joined 30 Jan 08

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Posted - 05 May 2020 :  10:20:43  Show Profile Send ignition a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
the app doesn't work on iPhones unless you literally have your phone unlocked and have the app open at ALL times...

waste of time if you ask me.
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bigem
A polar bear



Australia
16199 Posts
joined 22 Jun 04

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Posted - 06 May 2020 :  07:42:21  Show Profile Send bigem a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
I am more concerned about what the government won't let us know about the covidapp?
It's not even running yet and they claim 5 million downloads but all I am reading is that not a lot trust the government enough to download it!

New Commodore Hey! So you used your own money? Would you like to buy a used bridge?
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djr18fan
Team Manager



New Zealand
1885 Posts
joined 06 Jul 06

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Posted - 08 May 2020 :  07:51:15  Show Profile Send djr18fan a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
Coronavirus is saving lives in some countries.
In countries that have handled the epidemic well, total death rates are lower than normal as the relatively low number of deaths from the virus are more than offset by fewer deaths from motor vehicle & work place accidents, the flu (which is not apreading anywhere like usual due to social distancing) and even fewer murders (South Africa)

New Zealand's death numbers increase a little every year as population increases - and as expected were higher in Jan - March, but have dropped below previous years in April - despite that being the mont hwhen most of our cocid-19 deaths occurred.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12330443

_Mford
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tommo11
Team Manager



Indonesia
2127 Posts
joined 12 Dec 09

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Posted - 08 May 2020 :  15:00:12  Show Profile  Visit tommo11's Homepage Send tommo11 a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by Legendary Gerry

quote:
Originally posted by djr18fan

quote:
Originally posted by Bloopy

quote:
Originally posted by tommo11

Interesting that Australia seems to be doing just as well as NZ despite a much larger population, more international arrivals and a less stringent lockdown.

The per capita stats were always going to look worse for smaller countries. Just because we have 20% of Australia's population, doesn't mean any one infected person here only had 20% as many social contacts. Same reason why Iceland has so many cases per million and Belgium's death stats look particularly terrible.

In nerdspeak, apparently degrees of separation increases logarithmically with population size. So if Australia had an equally strict lockdown adhered to equally promptly, you might expect their cases per capita to be half of NZ's. But I guess it gets complicated if the stats include cases caught overseas, infected NZers travel via Australia to get home and so on.



Surprisingly, the majority of cases in NZ originated from the states. During March.



The exact same place most of Australia's came from...

I was saying US travel should have been closed 10 days earlier than it did. The government only had the courage to pick easy targets like Iran with a travel ban at the time.

2019 Fantasy League Overall Champion
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djr18fan
Team Manager



New Zealand
1885 Posts
joined 06 Jul 06

 offline

Posted - 08 May 2020 :  15:41:46  Show Profile Send djr18fan a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
.

_Mford

Edited by - djr18fan on 11 May 2020 19:01:23
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murph_fan51
Team Manager



New Zealand
8294 Posts
joined 13 Dec 02

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Posted - 11 May 2020 :  17:53:25  Show Profile  Visit murph_fan51's Homepage  Send murph_fan51 a Yahoo! Message Send murph_fan51 a Private Message  Reply with Quote Copy this URL to Link to this Reply
Well...I can’t see Supercars racing in NZ this year as our borders will be closed “for a long time” it was reported today.

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